Upstream material prices continue to fall, and component costs are expected to fall further
Views：184Published：2024/4/16
Article Details
Judging from the transaction situation, although the quotations of the material companies have continued to drop, the procurement actions at the crystal pulling end are still deadlocked against the background of high inventory, resulting in a significant increase in the inventory pressure of the material companies. Looking at the relationship between supply and demand, the ramp-up of production capacity in the early stage continues to supplement incremental output. However, under the condition of high inventory levels, the crystal pulling end is still mainly focused on digesting early stage inventory, and the oversupply situation is difficult to improve. The current N-type material quotations from leading manufacturers are floating at 55-58 yuan/KG, but some orders signed at the price of 58 yuan/KG in the early stage have been cancelled, indicating that the crystal pullers still have bearish expectations for the N-type price. Looking into the market outlook, silicon material inventory levels are gradually rising. Considering that new production capacity will be put into production in the future, it is expected that supply pressure will continue and prices will continue to fall.
silicon wafer
Silicon wafer prices continue to decline this week. The mainstream transaction price of P-type M10 silicon wafers is 1.65 yuan/piece; the mainstream transaction price of P-type G12 silicon wafers is 2.15 yuan/piece; the mainstream transaction price of N-type M10 silicon wafers is 1.60 yuan/piece; N-type The mainstream transaction price of G12 is 2.3 yuan/piece.
In terms of supply and demand, some second- and third-tier silicon wafer manufacturers have successively arranged to reduce production and gradually lowered their operating rates. However, even taking into account the current overall operating rate, the silicon wafer inventory level at the end of the month is still high, and the imbalance between supply and demand is difficult to reverse. Currently, the silicon wafer segment continues to suffer heavy losses. The price range of 182P type (diameter 247, 256) has dropped to 1.60-1.65 yuan, while the price of N-type continues to loosen, with a transaction range of 1.55-1.60 yuan. Some manufacturers are selling goods to remove inventory. A bottom quotation of 1.5X yuan has appeared. Observing the current dynamic inventory, P type accounts for about 10%, 210N (including rectangular) accounts for about 14%, and the remaining 182N (including rectangular) is nearly 77%. Silicon wafer prices are difficult to stabilize against the background of sharp price cuts for silicon materials; prices have continued to decline this week, and there is still a risk of price decline in the market outlook, but the room for price decline is gradually narrowing.
Cell
Cell prices have dropped significantly this week; the mainstream transaction price of M10 cells is 0.340 yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of G12 cells is 0.350 yuan/W, the price of M10 monocrystalline TOPCon cells is 0.42 yuan/W, and the price of G12 monocrystalline TOPCon cells is 0.42 yuan/W. The battery price for people is 0.43 yuan/W.
In terms of supply and demand, cell output and downstream demand are basically flat this month. Inventory levels are expected to increase slightly, but are still in a healthy state. The cost side will now determine the price trend. The sharp price drop of upstream silicon wafers and the continuous pressure from the component side, coupled with the large outflow of OEM wafers and dual-distribution wafers, will also continue to impact the quotation of battery cells. At present, the price of 182P has dropped to 0.33-0.34 yuan/W, and the price range of 182N has simultaneously dropped to 0.40-0.43 yuan/W. The overall supply and demand of 210 is stable, the circulation level is limited, and the quotation is temporarily stable. Looking forward to the market outlook, with the continued loosening of upstream silicon wafer prices and constant pressure from the component side, the support for cell prices will continue to weaken.
components
Module prices remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction price of 182 single-sided monocrystalline PERC modules was 0.93 yuan/W. The mainstream transaction price of 210 single-sided monocrystalline PERC modules was 0.95 yuan/W. The mainstream transaction price of 182 double-sided double-glass monocrystalline PERC modules was 0.93 yuan/W. is 0.94 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of 210 bifacial double-glass monocrystalline PERC modules is 0.97 yuan/W.
At the supply and demand level, component production scheduling is driven by the two-wheel drive of demand + orders. Production scheduling this month is expected to continue to increase, with a month-on-month increase of 7%-9%. Affected by the implementation of tariffs, demand in the Indian market fell slightly, while the rest of the market was generally improving. The price anchor is still cost, and the upstream silicon end continues to fluctuate and fall. In the context of industrial chain prices that are difficult to stabilize, price reductions seem to be resurgent. In order to seize the market, the frequency of tentative reductions has increased. Prices are temporarily stable this week, but the cost side and terminal pressure are coming from both sides. The price game pressure in the market outlook has increased, and prices are expected to loosen and go down.
Reposted from: International Electronic Commerce, automatically translated by Google
