After the price increase of memory chips, some products are out of stock?
Views：164Published：2023/12/12
Article Details
According to media sources in Taiwan, China, after a long period of low-pressure atmosphere, the market has gradually become optimistic about memory chips recently. In addition, the five major storage manufacturers have effectively reduced production, and the price of memory chips is difficult to suppress. The procurement efforts of downstream system manufacturers of memory chips have become more active, and some products are out of stock. Phenomenon. According to feedback from the industry chain, manufacturers including Samsung and Micron are currently willing to increase prices.
Original manufacturers have a strong willingness to increase prices, and analysts say they need to pay attention to future demand.
On December 7, media reported that Western Digital issued a price increase notification letter to customers. In the letter, Midwestern Data stated that the company will review the pricing of hard disk products every week and expects prices to rise in the first half of next year. For flash memory chips, the company expects prices to rise cyclically in the next few quarters. Based on the current quotation, the cumulative increase may be up to 55%.
It is worth noting that at this stage, the industry is optimistic that NAND chip quotations will stop falling and rebound. However, most suppliers currently notify customers individually to adjust their quotations. However, Western Digital directly sent a price increase letter to customers this time, and the expected increase is astonishing. The first shot at a comprehensive price increase in the industry was fired.
At the same time, the latest financial reports of many manufacturers in the storage industry chain have improved significantly month-on-month.
Samsung Electronics’ Q3 net profit was 5.50 trillion won, turning from a loss to a profit. In early November, Korean media quoted multiple sources in the semiconductor industry as saying that at the end of Q4 inventory reduction, Samsung intends to increase its quotation by 20% quarter by quarter in the first and second quarters of next year.
On December 11, SSD main control chip manufacturer Phison announced its November performance report, with consolidated revenue of NT$5.407 billion, a monthly increase of nearly 5%. According to Phison, the total shipments of SSD control chips continued to recover in November. Among them, the total shipments of PCIe SSD control chips increased by nearly 40% year-on-year, setting a new high for the same period in history. This also supports the news that the storage market has surged.
The latest financial report of storage module factory ADATA shows that the company’s consolidated revenue in October was NT$3.791 billion, an increase of 13.43% month-on-month and 39.59% year-on-year. ADATA Chairman Chen Libai recently stated that NAND Flash inventory is expected to be depleted by the end of this year or the end of January next year. It is expected that both DRAM and NAND Flash will be in short supply next year.
Longsys’ Q3 revenue was 2.872 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 29.03%; memory chip distributor Shannon Xinchuang deducted non-net profit of 63.77 million yuan in Q3, a month-on-month increase of 22.57%.
In addition, DRAM manufacturer Nanya believes that it has been observed that the price of DDR5 specification DRAM has begun to rise, and the price of DDR4 has begun to stabilize under the efforts of major manufacturers. It is expected that the prices of DDR4 and DDR3 will have the opportunity to improve slightly in the fourth quarter.
Although various major storage manufacturers have reduced production at different paces this year, their inventories have been cleared so far, and previously high wafer inventories have been gradually released. "NAND Flash spot prices have been rising strongly since the end of September, which is due to suppliers' collective production cuts. If the losses were not very serious, it would be difficult for suppliers to unite to raise prices." Wu Yating, an analyst at TrendForce, said recently that Samsung's production capacity ratio The peak period has been reduced by nearly half, indicating that manufacturers with better cost structures such as Samsung can no longer tolerate losses. By now, the bottom of the average wafer price should have passed.
From the supply side, recent industry news shows that storage manufacturers are using "delay tactics" to supply flash memory in the fourth quarter. Module manufacturers tried to finalize orders for millions of units in September, but the original manufacturers were reluctant to release the goods. Even if they are willing to deliver goods, the quantity and price cannot reach satisfactory targets. At the same time, Samsung is reported to have suspended quotations and shipments of NAND products.
According to the latest research from Trend Force, although the contract prices of DRAM and NAND Flash began to rise from the fourth quarter, the increase may be lower than expected. For DRAM, on the supply side in the fourth quarter, original manufacturers have a clear stance on price increases, and DRAM contract prices are expected to rise by approximately 13% to 18% in the fourth quarter. ; The degree of recovery in demand is not as good as in past peak seasons. Overall, although buyers have demand for stocking up, currently, the server field is still passive in stocking up due to high inventory levels, and the shipment growth of the DRAM industry in the fourth quarter is limited.
In terms of NAND Flash, TrendForce said that at the end of the third quarter, the contract price negotiation direction of NAND Flash has been heading towards stopping the decline or even increasing the price. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, NAND Flash products will increase in volume and price, and it is estimated that all products will The average sales unit price will increase by 13%, and the overall NAND Flash industry revenue is expected to increase by more than 20% month-on-month.
Reposted from: International Electronic Commerce, automatically translated by Google
